Buying signals · Dallas–Fort Worth, 2023 to 2025

The buying signals are real. Here is the paper trail.

We went back through real fencing, electrical and waste purchases in Dallas–Fort Worth and rebuilt what was public before each one was awarded. Every date on this page comes from the record itself: a permit, a state filing, a council agenda.

8 to 23 mo
between the first public signal and the award
1 to 6
bidders on 17 confirmed public awards. One $5.5M electrical contract drew a single bid
32 days
before Siemens announced its Fort Worth plant, its electrical contractor was on a city permit
31
dated predictions registered in advance. We grade them publicly as they resolve
Replay it

Three purchases, replayed from the public record.

Drag the slider to any date and see what was public before the award was made. The outcome stays hidden until you pass it. Every point links to its source document.

What the record shows

The early signals are boring documents.

What we found

  • Buyers announce themselves months ahead, in stopgap contracts, forecast lines, bond votes and renewal options running out. A one-year waste stopgap in Dallas preceded a $7.8M re-bid by 351 days. A single forecast line preceded a $4.3M fence award by 323 days.
  • City permits name the winners. In Fort Worth and Dallas the contractor is on the electrical, mechanical and racking permits, often before any press release. That tells you which GC to call and when the next trade is due.
  • One site keeps buying. Siemens's $64M fit-out produced electrical, racking, mechanical, fence and crane purchases over 18 months, then a $20M second phase. Each showed up in a filing first.

What did not work

  • Contract expiry dates often lead to renewals, not re-bids.
  • Incentive announcements overstate. One $68.9M package promised 1,200 jobs and delivered ten.
  • Waste haulers at private sites leave no public trace, and some cities hide contractor names on permits.

How we know

70 case records, 234 dated signals and 61 data sources, each checked against the primary document: Texas TDLR, Fort Worth and Dallas permit records, Legistar, board packets, SAM.gov and USAspending. The cases that led nowhere sit in the same dataset as the ones that worked. Ask us for the full case files.

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